After his sublime destruction of Novak Djokovic yesterday (10/12/2020) to win his unprecedented 13th (not a misprint!) French Open title, Rafael Nadal has tied Roger Federer’s once seemingly unreachable Grand Slam total of 20, with Novak Djokovic not far behind at a hard charging 17. Looking at the bigger picture, the debate continues to rage on about which player is the Greatest Of All Time (GOAT). This article attempts to settle that debate (for now).
Now, certainly guys like Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg, and Pete Sampras were phenomenal players who were the best of their respective eras, but I think the common consensus is that the debate is ultimately about who was the best of the current “Big 3” (sorry Andy Murray there was never a “Big 4”).
For many years most people had Federer at the top of the mountaintop, with the argument being simply that he had the most Grand Slam titles. People make the same debate in putting Jack Nicklaus over Tiger Woods (that’s an article for a different day). I think this is an over-simplification, and upon thinking about it further I tried to come up with a formula to determine which tennis player is the true GOAT.
For starters, why does everyone act like all Grand Slams are created equally? Unless you’re from Australia, I think anyone would rather win Wimbledon than the Australian Open, no? So I decided to rank the Grand Slams in what I feel is their order of importance (keeping in mind there’s probably an American slant to these rankings), and assign a points total for each title.
- Wimbledon (10 points)
- U.S. Open (9 points)
- French Open (8 points)
- Australian Open (7.5 points)
Secondly, why do people act like major titles are the be-all, end-all to determining the GOAT? They are only four tournaments in a calendar season that typically features many additional matches. Don’t these matches count? I’m not saying they count as much as the Slams (they don’t), but they shouldn’t be discounted either. So, I came up with point assignments for other variables as well.
After the Grand Slams, the most important matches, the ones that feature the best fields, are the ATP Masters tournaments. So, I decided to assign 3 points for each ATP Masters title.
Another consideration is the year-end #1 ranking. In addition to winning majors (i.e. Grand Slams), the goal of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic each year is to be ranked #1 in the world at the end of the calendar year. I have heard all three of these players talk about this being a goal of theirs and know that it is significant to them. So why do people not include this variable in the GOAT conversation? Let’s add 5 points for each year end #1 ranking.
Finally, there is the head-to-head matchups. I am a big fan of Federer (though truth be told Borg and Sampras are my all-time favorites along with Nadal), but it’s becoming increasingly hard to make the case for him being #1. A big reason why is that he has a losing record against both Nadal and Djokovic, plus they will likely add additional Slams whereas it would be a big surprise if he added to his Grand total of 20. Anyway, what they do against each other matters, so I assigned 3 points per overall win total advantage over each adversary.
Lastly, I gave Nadal 5 points for the lone Olympic Gold Medal among the three players, and granted points based on overall winning percentage as well, based on a 10-8-6 system. I also decided to give Federer 10 bonus points for his unsurpassed longevity and consistency at the highest level, and for being an exemplary ambassador for the game (Nadal and Djokovic score well in this area as well, but Roger never had annoying on court mannerisms like Nadal’s excessive grunting or Djokovic’s ridiculous ball bouncing before each serve).
The following table shows the results of this exercise.
| Event (Points) | Federer | Nadal | Djokovic |
| Wimbledon (10) | 80 (8) | 20 (2) | 50 (5) |
| U.S. Open (9) | 45 (5) | 36 (4) | 27 (3) |
| French (8) | 8 (1) | 104 (13) | 8 (1) |
| Australian (7.5) | 45 (6) | 7.5 (1) | 60 (8) |
| Year End #1 (5) | 25 (5) | 25 (5) | 30 (6) |
| ATP Masters Titles (3) | 84 (28) | 105 (35) | 108 (36) |
| Head-To-Head (3 per win advantage) | 0 16-24 (Nadal) 23-27 (Djokovic) | 18 (+6 x 3) 24-16 (Federer) 27-29 (Djokovic) | 18 (+6 x 3) 29-27 (Nadal) 27-23 (Federer) |
| Olympic Gold Medal (5) | 0 | 5 (2008) | 0 |
| Overall Winning % (10-8-6) | 6 (82.1%) | 10 (83.3%) | 8 (83.1%) |
| Bonus Points (10) | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Points | 303 | 330.5 | 309 |
Conclusion: Rafael Nadal is the current GOAT, but that can change being that this story is still being written. To be continued…
Scott's Music Writings 